Thursday, December 18, 2008

Statistical Trickery

From CNN: "For example, a study by Harvard researchers found that each additional 12-ounce soft drink consumed per day increases the risk of a child becoming obese by 60 percent."


Without knowing the baseline this statement is worthless, yet it's no where in the article.  If the risk of a child becoming obese was 1% then 1 soda increases their risk to 1.6%, not a big deal.  If the risk of being obese is 30% then 1 soda raises them to 48%.  Now that's a big deal.  So obviously it's somewhere in between, but the media would prefer to give the impression that the first soda raises a child's risk of becoming obese TO 60% and by the second soda they're downright doomed.  That's strength in numbers. 

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