A thought on Social Security

First, from the New England Journal of Medicine (props to google for finding me such a reputable sounding source):

"Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, weconclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end."


This was essentially my thought in a nutshell, corroborated by the NEJoM.  Social Security is supposed to run out because our life expectancy has grown, and we're even told by the SSA that they are raising the life expectancy estimates, I have to wonder how valid those estimates are given the growing trend of overweight/obese Americans.  How could life expectancy not go down when the percentage of overweight and obese Americans went from 33.1% and 22.9% from '88-94 to a current 34.1% and 32.2% respectively?  Someone would have to be lying because the % increase is certainly statistically significant so are the health concerns overblown or is the SSA afraid to say that our life expectancy is actually going down?  I'd have to guess the latter because I haven't seen any medical advancements that seem to really be prolonging lifespans in recent years the way heart surgery and cancer treatments prolonged the lives of the baby boomers.


So maybe there is hope for Social Security after all!


(edit: sweet moving map! http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/trend/maps/index.htm )